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Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T16:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41598/-1
CME Note: Faint, wide, slow CME observed as barely a partial halo to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and more directly to the E in STEREO A COR2 with a large data gap between 2025-10-03T18:53Z to 2025-10-03T22:23Z. The source for this event is uncertain, and the slow evolving lobed nature of the front highlights this uncertainty, with two visible eruption candidates that are poor fits. A filament eruption spanning N20W30 to N40W60 which begins to lift-off around 2025-10-03T15:45Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/304 is observed, along with faint, slow dimming and field line loop brightening over cluster of AR 14232 (N04W14) and AR 14236 (N10W22) starting around 2025-10-03T15:00Z; but neither source is clearly associated with this front. Arrival characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 8nT to approx. 13nT, reaching a maximum of 14nT. Accompanied by a small increase in solar wind speed from 345 km/s to 400 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-09T07:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-08T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41638/1
Model Inputs:
2025-10-03T16:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=213.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2025-10-04T07:00Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-08T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-08T06:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-06T06:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-06T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251004_070000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.52 hour(s)
Difference: 19.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-06T15:09Z

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